Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to affect the security environment of the Black Sea region as well as the delicate balance of power among littoral states. Turkey, which controls the access by sea to and from the Black Sea, has a great interest in regional security even if over recent years its foreign and defence policy has primarily focused on the Mediterranean and the Middle East. While Ankara is attempting to play the role of mediator between Moscow and Kiev, questions have been raised regarding the possible implications the war could have on the security environment of the Black Sea and beyond in the short and medium term. How does Ankara view such possible changes in regional equilibriums? How will this war affect Turkey’s relations with both Russia and its NATO allies? What will be the impact on Turkey’s security policy in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean as well as on regional cooperation initiatives?
Ian Lesser, Vice President, GMFUS
Mitat Celikpala, Professor of International Relations, Kadir Has University
Stephen J. Flanagan, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation
Alina Inayeh, Director, Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation, GMFUS
Valeria Talbot, Co-Head, Middle East and North Africa Centre, ISPI
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