Almost eight years after the beginning of the Libyan civil war, the path towards peace and institutional reconstruction in the country seems to be in a state of deadlock, once again. After the cease-fire, the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU), and the rising enthusiasm over prospects for stabilization, the decision to postpone the presidential elections scheduled for last December opened a phase of political impasse. At the beginning of March, Fathi Bashagha was sworn as the new Prime Minister at the House of Representatives, leading to the birth of the Government of National Stability (GNS). Today, the country faces uncertainty over its future, with two rival administrations in place and stand-off over executive legitimacy. Against this backdrop, the war in Ukraine is already impacting the Libyan political and economic landscape, raising fears over potential spillovers on the international actors involved in the country.
What are the prospects for breaking the political stalemate in Libya, avoiding a relapsing of the conflict? Which role for the United Nations and the international community in this respect? To what extent will the war in Ukraine condition future political developments and economic recovery prospects?
EMADEDDIN BADI | Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
VIRGINIE COLLOMBIER | Senior Associate Research Fellow, MENA Centre, ISPI; Professor, Middle East Directions Programme, EUI
JALEL HARCHAOUI | Researcher and Expert on Libya
FEDERICA SAINI FASANOTTI | Senior Associate Fellow, ISPI